What Chicago Booth experts are saying about Brexit

After 43 years as members of the European Union, voters in the United Kingdom have voted to leave. Immediately following, Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron resigned, bringing an abrupt end to his six-year premiership. These changes will have significant economic, political and social consequences. Here is what some Chicago Booth experts are saying.

What to Expect From Trump's First 100 Days

Luigi Zingales

December 30, 2016 | Bloomberg

Manulife Asset Management Chief Economist Megan Greene and Chicago Booth School of Business Professor Luigi Zingales weigh in on Brexit. They speak on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

Luigi Zingales, Robert C. McCormack Distinguished Service Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance, and Charles M. Harper Faculty Fellow, Bloomberg, 12/30/16

Adobe Data Shows U.K. Retail Sales Drop Following Brexit

September 23, 2016 | Yahoo!

“There has been little good, micro-level data on the real economy in the U.K. to help us understand the impact of the Brexit vote,” said Austan Goolsbee, professor of economics, The University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business and former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers for President Obama.

Austan Goolsbee, Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics, Yahoo!, 9/23/16

Britain pays the price for a badly designed Brexit choice

David Cameron

The more complicated a decision, the less desirable a referendum, writes Richard Thaler

Richard Thaler, Charles R. Walgreen Distinguished Service Professor of Behavioral Science and Economics, Financial Times, 8/18/16

What Brexit says about the credibility of experts and evidence

Big Ben in London

University of Chicago professor Luigi Zingales blames a combination of monetary incentives that bias their perspective and an elitist worldview.

Luigi Zingales, Robert C. McCormack Distinguished Service Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance, and Charles M. Harper Faculty Fellow, WBEZ, 7/27/16

Brexit: The Fallout In Italy

Protesters with signs, "Rome Loves EU"

We talk about how the Brexit vote is playing out in Italy with Luigi Zingales, a professor of entrepreneurship and finance at the University of Chicago and the director of the Stigler Center at the University of Chicago.

Luigi Zingales, Robert C. McCormack Distinguished Service Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance, and Charles M. Harper Faculty Fellow, 7/15/16

Italian banks: Essential repairs

Financial Times

“Brexit was the spark in a place full of gasoline,” says Luigi Zingales, professor of entrepreneurship and finance at Chicago Booth University School of Business. “The issue is not only non-performing loans. There is a lack of credibility … of the Italian banks vis-à-vis the market. You cannot minimise problems for years and then be believed.”

Luigi Zingales, Robert C. McCormack Distinguished Service Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance, and Charles M. Harper Faculty Fellow, Financial Times, 7/10/16

Brexit: Likely Effects of Britain's Departure from EU on Trade, the U.K., and European Integration

Anil Kashyap

Anil Kashyap talks about what Brexit means for London as a financial center. He predicts the financial services sector in the United Kingdom will shrink under Brexit and as companies move outside the U.K. He also runs the numbers on how that migration could hurt Britain’s tax coffers.

Anil Kashyap, Edward Eagle Brown Professor of Economics and Finance, National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute panel, 7/12/16

Will low interest rates drive up consumer spending?

A vintage shopping photo

Notes Randall Kroszner, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business who served from 2006-2009 as a Governor of the Federal Reserve System, there’s a flip side to the coin that is low interest rates.

“Why are interest rates so low? Well, interest rates are low because there’s a lot of economic uncertainty,” he said.

Randall S. Kroszner, Norman R. Bobins Professor of Economics, in Marketplace interview, 7/7/16

The U.K. Can’t Block Immigration If It Wants To Keep Its Finance Industry

London's financial district

The Brexit vote will force the next U.K. prime minister to make a significant choice: Whether to control immigration into the country, or preserve the pre-eminence of the country’s financial center, known as the City of London. Doing both appears to be infeasible.

Anil Kashyap, Edward Eagle Brown Professor of Economics and Finance, in FiveThirtyEight, 7/5/16

Brexit versus Grexit: Why you might call a referendum and then reject its outcome

Greek flag

Britain voted for Brexit, but many seek ways to avoid it. This draws comparison with the events of almost exactly a year ago when the Greek government ignored the outcome of the Greek bailout referendum.

Lubos Pastor, Charles P. McQuaid Professor of Finance, VOX, 7/4/16

An Index of Uncertainty Surges After ‘Brexit’

Economic Policy Uncertainty index

The three economics professors who compile the data — Scott Baker, Nick Bloom and Steven Davis — have shown that a rise in their index foreshadows lower investment, output and employment.

Steven Davis, William H. Abbott Professor of International Business and Ecoomics, in The New York Times, 7/1/16

The Real Lesson From Brexit

Luigi Zingales

"What we have observed in Britain and what we are observing in the U.S. with Trump is a growing mistrust of voters toward experts. In the Brexit debate it was hard to find any economist justifying a departure from the European Union. In fact, many were willing to make forecasts so pessimistic as to be accused of scaremongering. Not only did these forecasts fail to rally the vote for Remain, they probably contributed to the victory of Leave."

— Luigi Zingales, Robert C. McCormack Distinguished Service Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance, and Charles M. Harper Faculty Fellow, in ProMarket 6/29/16

A polling station in England

Do not leave me...

According to you, how many British took the time to study the issue rationally? According to Richard Thaler, professor of behavioral economics at Chicago Booth Business School, they were few. Given that approach advocates analytical thinking and based on statistics and simulations failed, how can we explain the choice of the British? (Translation)

Richard Thaler, Charles R. Walgreen Distinguished Service Professor of Behavioral Science and Economics, in Huffington Post Quebec, June 27, 2016

A flag reading "Vote to Leave"

The Brexit May Be Just The Beginning Of Anti-Europe Votes

"One of the biggest consequences of the British vote to leave Europe is that other countries will consider doing the same. Populism and nationalism are on the rise all over the globe. Now that U.K. voters have been given a chance to express their preferences, I believe that it is almost inevitable that another government inside the EU will hold some sort of similar vote."

Anil Kashyap, Edward Eagle Brown Professor of Economics and Finance, in FiveThirtyEight, 6/24/2016

MSNBC interview with Austan Goolsbee

The undercurrents of the Brexit vote

"The shorter the time frame, the more of an effect there is. That's true in the UK and in the US. Over the longer run, they will be able to sort out trade agreements with Europe. They might take a Switzerland model; they might take a Canada model. They will be able to sort out a model. But in the short run, in the US, if you own stocks, you're going to have a tough day most likely."

— Austan Goolsbee, Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics, in an MSNBC interview, 6/24/16

Austan Goolsbee interview on Fox Business

Goolsebee: The U.S. Can Withstand a U.K. Recession

“They are very likely to run up again and again on a series of details where they say, well wait a minute do you have a banking license in France now? Or do I have to go back? Do I have to get a special stamp on my visa and you’ve seen the market reaction, I think they are highly likely to go into a recession in the short run as they deal with that.”

—  Austan Goolsbee, Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics, in a Fox Business interview, 6/24/16

Richard Thaler interview on MarketWatch

Richard Thaler: 'Brits Are Voting With Their Guts'

"Standard economics would think that voters would be making the kind of calculation that the op-ed writers in the Wall Street Journal or the Economist are doing by crunching a bunch of numbers and saying the pros and cons of being in the EU. If you could find a hundred voters in Britain that have made that calculation, I'd like to talk to them. The people behind the "Leave Campaign" are voting with their guts. There's no spreadsheet. This is much like a divorce without a pre-nup. You're voting to leave and then, 'we'll take care of all the details later.'"

Richard Thaler, Charles R. Walgreen Distinguished Service Professor of Behavioral Science and Economics, in advance of the vote on MarketWatch, June 20, 2016

Traders in the New York Stock Exchange

Wall Street holds its breath on Brexit

“The Trump people will be overjoyed if Leave wins. It would say that the same problems we have with accurate polling in the U.S. exist in the U.K. and that the populist element is much stronger than polls say.”

Austan Goolsbee, Robert P. Gwinn Professor of Economics, in advance of the vote in Politico, June 23, 2016